"Buy when there's blood in the streets."
It's a phrase we've all heard, an old Wall Street adage attributed to Baron de Rothschild, quoted often by other expert investor types and mentioned before on this blog. It refers to buying during market lows, when fear has scared off others and huge discounts are to be had. It's a phrase that fits the current real estate markets in many parts of the United States.
And while the recent data suggests that falling prices are finally starting to boost home sales, it's probably safe to say that the "blood" left on the streets - and everywhere elese, it seems - by the real estate bubble's burst and the subprime mortgage meltdown has scared off some would-be buyers.
But savvy investors aren't queasy about blood. And the latest news of a huge real estate play by a group of investors comes to us from one of the bloodiest of the bloody states: Florida.
The news? According to one Florida newspaper, a London real estate group is raising $1 billion to purchase luxury homes in Florida. The asset management group's plan is to buy bank-owned homes and hold them for as long as 10 years. A billion dollars worth of homes. The name for the project is the Florida Prime Residentail Opportunity Fund.
Did you catch that? They put the word "opportunity" in the name. And they are committing a billion dollars to this opportunity. I know $1 billion isn't going to buy as much property in Florida as it would here in Cleveland, but it's still a lot of homes. It's a substantial investment. And it's going to have a substantial payoff.
Yes, there are "experts" guessing that home prices in some areas of the biggest run-ups during the real estate boom might see declines for two or more years. So the initial investment of $1 billion could drop in value before recovering.
But the plan is not to flip these properties, as other buyers of distressed homes are trying to do. The FPROF strategy is buy and hold for maybe a decade. It's an investment, not speculation. And it's an investment in an asset - ocean-front land in a sunny coastal state - that is scarce. It's an investment into an asset that has always been in demand and always appreciated at a high rate (before the bubble burst) relative to the rest of the country. In the two years prior to the real estate market crashing there, prices in the Miami area increased 50 percent. In two years! Do you think this group cares if the market has hit bottom yet? With a 10-year plan, does it matter?
And if it doesn't matter to investors with a billion dollars in the game, why does the "bottom" seem to matter to so many others?
People with $1 billion to invest know what they're doing. And this group of Brits are teaching us a lesson: A bargain is a bargain, and the biggest bargains are apparently found where it's bloodiest.
Mike Sivula - Income for Life Cleveland
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